Transport demand: the new world
Developing countries spiraling growth means the demand for fuel is rapidly expanding and by 2050 this could be upped by as much as 200- 300%.
In the next 40 years requirements are set to surge, industrial production rates are soaring in countries such as China and India which on estimation reflects a need for greater fuel consumption to commit and produce worldwide goods ongoing.
However in contrast, the fuel consumption of developing countries is on track to greatly reduce by as much as 20%, this may be due to a number of factors from lack of exportation to advancing methods of transportation through emergent technologies in infrastructure.
In the transport sector, the need for Oil will continue with demand reaching over 80%, in the next 40 years this trend is set to continue especially in Shipping and Air traffic.
The figures taken from the Global Transport Scenarios Report may seem quite extreme but in 40 years with an increasing population and stretching consumer demand the figures seem rather prevalent.
The result of this year-long study describes potential developments in global transport fuels and technology systems on the basis of two distinct scenarios; ‘Freeway’ and ‘Tollway’.
The ‘Freeway’ scenario envisages a world where pure market forces prevail to create a climate for open global competition and solutions which are driven by lowest cost and the private sector.
The ‘Tollway’ scenario describes a more regulated world where governments decide to intervene in markets to promote early adoption of alternative technology solutions and invest in public transport infrastructure putting common interests at the forefront.
Prof Karl Rose, Director of Policy and Scenarios at the World Energy Council said,
‘It is, however, evident that the transport sector is about to go through a radical change. The light duty vehicle sector in OECD countries will be almost completely transformed in terms of fuel mix and we will see a pronounced shift of demand for transport fuels to the developing countries’.